GTHA emissions increase in all regions: reaching pre-pandemic levels.

Carbon emissions in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area increased 2% in 2023, from 53.5 million tonnes to 54.5 million tonnes, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. 

The 2023 Carbon Emissions Inventory for the GTHA shows that except for a slight decline in the building sector, all other sectors showed an increase in emissions, underscoring the need for strong climate action across the board from all levels of government, businesses, and individuals.  

The rate of annual decrease needed to hit 2030 targets grows steeper. To meet our climate targets, we’d have to decrease our emissions by 11% per year.  

Increases were seen across every region, ranging from 0.8% in Halton Region, to 2.9% in Hamilton. Per capita emissions decreased in some regions including Durham, Halton, Peel, and Toronto, while Hamilton and York had slight increases. 

For the first time ever, TAF has access to emissions data and trends at the lower-tier municipal level. Based on popular request, we are publishing more granular data to help municipalities with their climate action planning and strategy development. 

Buildings are the number one source of urban emissions.

Building emissions make up 45% of all GTHA emissions and largely come from natural gas used for space heating and natural gas plants used for generating electricity. Total building emissions decreased by 0.6% in 2023, which can be largely attributed to a milder winter.

Our analysis of 1,620 buildings from Ontario’s Energy and Water Reporting and Benchmarking data found that weather normalized energy consumption in large buildings dropped nearly 4% between 2019 and 2022. That shows some progress due to improvements in building efficiency, even if it is not on track with the rate of improvement needed to meet targets.  

There has been little progress to reduce emissions since 2015.

Increased electricity from natural gas sources undermines our gains.

However, in 2023, the provincial electricity grid became 30% more carbon intensive with the increased mix of natural gas generation, eroding many of the efficiency gains over the last several years. This factor alone increased GTHA emissions by 885 kilotonnes in 2023, and undermines the overall electrification pathway to decarbonizing buildings and transportation. 

Transportation emissions rose in all six regions, accounting for over a third of GTHA emissions.

Emissions from transportation make up 37% of all GTHA emissions and are caused mostly by personal vehicles. Apart from the 2020 global pandemic, transportation emissions have increased each year since 2015, when TAF began conducting regional carbon emissions inventories. In 2023, emissions increased 4.7% and have nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Bending the carbon curve is possible.

It's concerning that emissions are going up when they need to steeply decline. But it's not for lack of technology and know-how.

When solutions are applied, they get results. From waste diversion to retrofit programs, some activities to curb emissions are having an impact. There were positive trends in active transportation with most cities experiencing a rise in cycling and walking trips, and the number of EVs purchased grew at a record pace. Green development standards for new buildings are now the norm in the region, and we're seeing their effect. The population increased by almost a quarter million people, but building emissions didn't.  

TAF’s inventory charts progress and makes recommendations for action for municipal, provincial, and federal governments. Check the status of GTHA municipalities in our updated policy tracker or skip to the recommendations for policymakers.  

The GTHA represents almost 50% of Ontario’s emissions.

The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) in Canada includes the City of Toronto, the City of Hamilton, and the regional municipalities of Halton, Peel, York, and Durham. This 8,241 square kilometre urban region, home to over 7.6 million people, is Canada’s commercial, distribution, and financial core. Almost half of Ontario’s emissions come from this region.

TAF acknowledges these boundaries were created by settlers and do not reflect the Indigenous peoples who have occupied these lands for thousands of years or their traditional territories or treaties.